Between June 13 and 14, 2025, Israeli airstrikes targeted several high-value military sites inside Iran, including infrastructure suspected to support nuclear development (Reuters, 14.06.2025). In response, Tehran issued a direct threat to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20 percent of global oil exports transit (Al Jazeera, 15.06.2025). The global market reaction was immediate. Brent crude surged above 103 dollars per barrel within 48 hours. Bitcoin plunged, rebounded, and corrected again. Major equity indices such as the S&P 500, DAX, and Nikkei suffered their sharpest daily declines since February. Global crypto investment funds recorded a tenth consecutive week of inflows, totaling 1.2 billion dollars (CoinShares, 17.06.2025). Capital flowed rapidly into safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries and gold.

This was not the outbreak of war—it was a systemic signal. A high-frequency realignment of capital and risk sentiment. A market-wide tremor reaching institutional portfolios across sectors, regions, and asset classes within hours. These dynamics reflect not just volatility, but a structural transformation of the geopolitical risk landscape.

In the same week, Russia launched its most extensive missile campaign against Ukraine in months, targeting both infrastructure and civilian centers (Reuters, 18.06.2025). China conducted a large-scale naval simulation around Taiwan, escalating tensions in the Indo-Pacific. Simultaneously, the European Union announced formal consultations on the creation of a joint defence pillar and the establishment of a dedicated security finance mechanism (Politico, 19.06.2025). These events are not disconnected. They are components of a new architecture: a distributed, persistent ecosystem of strategic uncertainty.

For institutional investors, this evolution renders traditional risk hedging increasingly obsolete. Risk is no longer an anomaly to be priced in—it is a permanent, active force shaping capital flows. In this context, geopolitical developments are not peripheral—they are central. They influence valuation models, liquidity scenarios, supply chains, and investment horizons.

At Mercaton SICAV, and specifically through the Peacemaker Fund, we recognize the need to invest not after stability is achieved, but during its construction. Our thesis is clear: systemic resilience begins with capital foresight. We do not wait for peace declarations. We invest in credible trajectories of stabilization—where institutions, infrastructure, and local partnerships align.

In Central and Eastern Europe, particularly Poland, Romania, and the Baltic states, we observe a shift from “buffer zones” to “strategic frontiers.” Critical infrastructure—ranging from energy and digital security to cross-border logistics—is no longer just operational. It is geopolitical. The resilience of these systems determines the investment climate of entire regions.

This is not a time for passive capital. It is a time for strategic positioning. In a world of layered conflicts and intersecting pressures, long-term value can only be built where long-term presence begins early. We see investing not as a reaction to stability, but as a condition for making it possible.

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